Back in 2022, we used data to predict who would take home the Eurovision crown - and this year, we’re back to do it again. With more streaming data and deeper AI integration our Data and Insight team's prediction for 2025 is in.
For all the predictions, a custom methodology was used to quantify various factors that are important to a song’s success in the contest, which include:
- The betting odds from Eurovision World: converting the chance percentage into a score out of 1
- Qualifying history (Semi Finals only): the total number of times a country has qualified, divided by the number of times that country has competed in the semi-finals as a percentage.
- Streams on Spotify: number of streams divided by the number of days since it’s release
- Views of the official music video from YouTube (from the official Eurovision channel): number of views divided by the number of days since its release
- Running Order (Semi Finals only): The number of times a song performs in a particular order qualifies for the grand final divided by the number of times that slot appears in the semi-final (due to some countries automatically qualifying in a year where they host the contest, or the country withdrawing from the competition in a particular year).
These factors are then aggregated to a final score to predict which countries qualify for the grand final and which country overall will win the contest.
However as with all predictions, there are strengths and weaknesses to consider. The strengths of the prediction rely on sound reasoning and the statistical evidence available to us.
RESULTS
Below you can see the full breakdown of the predictions for both of the semi finals and the final.
SEMI-FINAL 1
In semi-final 1, we've predicted Sweden to come out top. They had the highest odds score, with a 95% chance of qualifying to the final, but Estonia, the Netherlands and Ukraine all came in just behind with 94%.
| Country | Running Order Score | Qualifying History Score | Odds Score | Views & Streams Score | Final Score | Ranking |
| Sweden | 0.59 | 0.942 | 0.95 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 |
| Estonia | 0.59 | 0.826 | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.79 | 2 |
| Netherlands | 0.64 | 0.652 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 3 |
| Ukraine | 0.59 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.58 | 0.78 | 4 |
| Cyprus | 0.86 | 0.768 | 0.86 | 0.52 | 0.75 | 5 |
| Norway | 0.58 | 0.884 | 0.84 | 0.64 | 0.74 | 6 |
| Poland | 0.27 | 0.594 | 0.83 | 0.7 | 0.60 | 7 |
| Belgium | 0.64 | 0.536 | 0.73 | 0.46 | 0.59 | 8 |
| San Marino | 0.68 | 0.188 | 0.52 | 0.88 | 0.57 | 9 |
| Albania | 0.50 | 0.304 | 0.93 | 0.28 | 0.50 | 10 |
SEMI-FINAL 2
For semi-final 2, Finland ranked top thanks to their Views and Streams Score and Running Order Score, but was tied with 94% in the odds so it really is all to play for here.
| Country | Running Order Score | Qualifying History Score | Odds Score | Views & Streams Score | Final Score | Ranking |
| Finland | 0.86 | 0.362 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.78 | 1 |
| Austria | 0.59 | 0.478 | 0.94 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 |
| Israel | 0.64 | 0.594 | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 3 |
| Australia | 0.55 | 0.942 | 0.80 | 0.7 | 0.75 | 4 |
| Greece | 0.50 | 0.768 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 5 |
| Lithuania | 0.62 | 0.884 | 0.77 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 6 |
| Malta | 0.58 | 0.42 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 7 |
| Czech Republic | 0.68 | 0.536 | 0.82 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 8 |
| Serbia | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.55 | 0.4 | 0.60 | 9 |
| Luxembourg | 0.50 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.60 | 10 |
OVERALL WINNER
According to the methodology, Sweden will be this year's winner, with the highest odds score, predicting they have a 35% chance of winning. However, Sweden, Italy, and the Netherlands were the top three in regards to streams and views (which coincidently is the same from our 2022 predictions!). The Views and Streams give a good indication of the fan favourite, and could give an early indication of how the televote will go, but of course we have to remember there will be regional bias.
| Country | Odds Score | Views & Streams Score | Final Score | Ranking |
| Sweden | 0.35 | 1 | 0.675 | 1 |
| Austria | 0.23 | 0.88 | 0.555 | 2 |
| Netherlands | 0.03 | 0.96 | 0.495 | 3 |
| Italy | 0.001 | 0.98 | 0.4905 | 4 |
| San Marino | 0.001 | 0.94 | 0.4705 | 5 |
| Estonia | 0.02 | 0.92 | 0.47 | 6 |
| Germany | 0.01 | 0.9 | 0.455 | 7 |
| Finland | 0.03 | 0.86 | 0.445 | 8 |
| France | 0.08 | 0.8 | 0.44 | 9 |
| Malta | 0.02 | 0.84 | 0.43 | 10 |
For the 2025 contest, the team also decided to individually ask various generative AI products (Chat GPT and Gemini (fun fact: Gemini is the name of the UK duo that famously scored nil points at Eurovision in 2003)) to predict who would be the overall winner of this years contest. From all the answers given, Sweden was the most common answer, with mentions of Austria, France, The Netherlands and Finland being contenders as well.
This year, if our predictions are right, the UK will be 21st, as they've come out with an odds prediction score of 10%. Oh well, maybe 2026 will be our year!
If you're interested to learn more about our Data and Insights team, in how we help brands unlock their full potential, or just want to discuss Eurovision, drop us a message, we always love to chat!
